The federal reserve is changing direction. In December it predicted that it would raise the federal funds rate twice in 2019, to 2.75-3.0%. In March it thought it would hold rates steady instead. Investors now think there is a one-in-five chance that it will cut rates at its meeting on June 19th, and a 95% chance that it will do so by September (see chart). Jerome Powell, the Feds chairman, has said it is “ready to act”.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit WikiFX news official website.
The reason for the change is a darkening world economy, caused primarily by the failure of America and China to strike a deal to bring their trade war to an end. Yet for all the ructions, the visible impact on Americas hard economic data has so far been relatively small. True, American firms hired only 75,000 workers in May, on first estimate, well below the recent monthly average. But jobs data are volatile, and the unemployment rate is a very low 3.6%.
Where the pain of the trade war has shown up is mainly in financial markets. The ten-year Treasury yield, for instance, was 2.5% in early May but has since fallen to 2.1% as investors have rushed to safety and anticipated rate cuts. Large moves like these raise an uncomfortable question for the Fed. Should it yield to the market, thereby risking the appearance that monetary policy is set by traders？ Or should it consider only backward-looking economic data, which move slowly？
Markets provide the aggregated wisdom of a crowd of individuals with money on the line. In most contexts their forecasts will outperform those of a financially disinterested committee, even one made up of experts. But there are other reasons why an apparent discrepancy between the two may endure.
The first is that there is not really a discrepancy at all. Suppose the Fed and the market make the same judgment about the risk of an economic shock such as a trade war. “The Fed has the luxury of more time,” says Torsten Slok, an economist at Deutsche Bank. It can wait to see what happens before changing policy, whereas investors must hedge their bets immediately to account for even unlikely events.
The second is that markets agree with the central bank about the economic outlook, but are confused about how it will act. “The Fed might have failed to communicate well,” says Frederic Mishkin, a former rate-setter.
Only if these possibilities can be ruled out can central bankers conclude that markets are telling them something they need to hear about growth and inflation. Discerning this signal becomes trickier the more the Fed appears to respond to the market. To see why, suppose that the Fed ignores market movements completely, and instead sets policy in an entirely predictable way, responding only to hard data on growth and inflation. Any change in market expectations about Fed policy would then reflect only changes in investors perception of the outlook for those variables. “If Fed policy is clear and systematic,” says Charles Calomiris of Columbia University, “policymakers can glean useful information from markets.” The more the Fed responds to the market, however, the more it is “looking in the mirror”, as Alan Greenspan, a former Fed chairman, supposedly once quipped.
If monetary policy were entirely automated, however, the information embodied in markets would be useful but unused. What is more, reacting only to real data is like driving while looking only in the rear-view mirror. Central bankers often say that monetary policy works only with a lag of 18 months or two years. Many economists believe that flat-footedness at the Fed has been to blame for numerous post-war American recessions.
If the Fed wants to glean useful information from markets, it cannot pander to them. “The Fed needs to be the dog that wags the tail,” says Mr Mishkin. But when market movements have a fairly clear cause-in todays case, the trade war-and the reaction is severe, it is likely that a rate cut will eventually be necessary. The short-term risk of moving in anticipation of events is that the outlook brightens and the rate cut then sparks inflation. Yet to the extent that economic data are telling a clear story, it is that inflation is contained. Consumer-price inflation, for example, slowed to 1.8% in May. That suggests it would be better for the Fed to get on with the rate cuts that the market expects.
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“Financika swallowed up the US$600 in my account balance after I refused to deposit more money!” The victim told WikiFX. He first learned about Financika through a seminar, and soon after that several of the company‘s agents bombarded him with advertising calls, trying to get him to open an account. “This broker kept nagging on me. When I didn’t sign up and make deposit immediately after listening to their introduction seminar, they kept on calling me to asked me to open an account. One of them named Lara Soliman even promised to send 120% of the margin into my account once I sign up, which was rather irresistible.” According to the investor, not long after he opened account and made deposit at Financika, the broker constantly tried to coax him into making further deposits with the deceptive “high investment, high return” promise. And when the investor refused, his trading account balance was arbitrarily cleared up through the broker’s manipulation.
Per checking WikiFX App, Financika is rated at only 1.30. The broker registered in Vanuatu is currently unregulated, bearing substantial risks, and WikiFX suggest investors stay away from it!
Mr. Odai, interested in forex investment, signed up on a forex website named Saudi money and submitted personal information including his name, phone number and email. A few days later, Mr. Odai received a call from a British number. The man who called himself Mustafa Jamal spoke to Mr. Odai in Arabic, telling him about the global stock market and that he should also consider trading because it makes good profits. In an effort to convince Mr. Odai, the man kept in touch with him for a week, and finally talked Mr. Odai into opening an account with US$250 of deposits. A day later, another man, Abdulsalam Rizk, asked Mr. Odai to approve the transaction made from his account. After Mr. Odai did as told, his account profited steadily for the next two weeks. Abdulsalam then advised Mr. Odai to make more money by entering the gold and oil markets, and Mr. Odai accepted the proposal, sending the guy US$250 in hope to increase his profits.To get more news about NAVER, you can visit WikiFX news official website.
Abdulsalam, who gradually gained Mr. Odai’s trust, continued to persuade him to borrow money from banks to make better use of his trading account to profit. Mr. Odai again followed the advice and successfully loaned US$3,000 from the bank. According to their previous agreement, he only need to pay half of the loan(US$1,500) while Abdulsalam should pay the other half. After that, Mr. Odai’s account balance increased every day and reached US$16,500 a month and a half later. Then, Abdulsalam and the illegal broker Lockwood eventually revealed their true colors. Abdulsalam asked Mr. Odai to transfer US$1,500 to him twice with the excuse of tax avoidance, but irregularity occurred during both transactions, as he got warnings from the bank about his transactions and was asked to pay taxes. Mr. Odai tried to contact Abdulsalam, but the man was already out of reach, leaving him unable to withdraw the balance in his account. What was worse, he still has a bank loan to pay.
As people often say “lookers-on see most of the game”, Mr. Odai, as an “insider” of the investment, failed to notice the many warning signs that would otherwise seem quite obvious. Meanwhile, the unscrupulous Lockwood abused investor‘s trust and coaxed him into making deposits with money borrowed from the bank, which is truly outrageous. Obsessed with the illusive high profits in his account at Lockwood, Mr. Odai failed to take the most crucial step during forex investment – checking the broker’s profile and compliance.
Rated at 1.29 on WikiFX App, Lockwood is an extremely unreliable broker and WikiFX suggests investors to stay away from it.